(315) 624-7300 / Email Us
Ascent Wealth Partners
  • Home
  • Investing
  • Planning
  • 401(k)
  • Knowledge
  • Team
    • Brad Kowalczyk
    • Mark Moshier
    • Scott McCartney
    • Doug Bissonette
    • Neil Edmonds
    • Joe Summa
    • Nancy Kowalczyk
    • Chris Lai
    • Tim Welchons
    • Steve Basile
    • Connie Benson
  • My Account
    • Fidelity Login
  • Contact Us
  • Form-CRS
Ascent Wealth Partners
  • Home
  • Investing
  • Planning
  • 401(k)
  • Knowledge
  • Team
    • Brad Kowalczyk
    • Mark Moshier
    • Scott McCartney
    • Doug Bissonette
    • Neil Edmonds
    • Joe Summa
    • Nancy Kowalczyk
    • Chris Lai
    • Tim Welchons
    • Steve Basile
    • Connie Benson
  • My Account
    • Fidelity Login
  • Contact Us
  • Form-CRS
Home Chris Lai Market Currents – 1/10/2020
Back Home

Market Currents – 1/10/2020

byAscentadmin inChris Lai posted onJanuary 10, 2020
0
0
Market Currents – 1/10/2020
  • A Solid Year. 2019 was unambiguously a solid year for investors.  Nearly all major asset classes reported strong returns, culminating in the best global equity total returns since 2009.  US stocks continued their recent momentum, breaking out to the upside and setting new highs.  Key drivers of the bullish move were the de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict, and accommodative interest rate cuts and other liquidity operations from the Federal Reserve.

 

  • US-China Trade Relations. The “Phase One” US–China trade deal, and the rollback of some tariffs, have contributed significantly to the recent rally.  A signing ceremony between the nations is imminent, and removes a degree of uncertainty from the trade conflict.  The next, much more difficult phase of trade talks lies ahead, and likely will not conclude (if at all) until after the November election.

 

  • Trade Truce for 2020? We are encouraged by the apparent standstill in the trade conflict between the nations.  It is apparent that the hottest moments of the conflict inflicted damage to both countries’ economies, and neither Chairman XI nor President Trump appear eager to continue with the harm.  Elsewhere, the USMCA, a refresh of NAFTA, is nearing approval in the US Congress, de-conflicting another trade zone.  A potential offset, however, is Europe.  President Trump has long been discontented with trade terms between the US and Europe, and has threatened to impose tariffs.  Such an action would likely be a sharp negative for the economies and asset markets in both regions.

 

  • The US Consumer Carries the Load. US growth decelerated through 2020, but strong payroll growth, low unemployment, and firm consumer spending have continued to drive GDP.  Manufacturing activity, in particular, weakened, exacerbated by a lengthy strike at General Motors and a production halt for the 737 Max at Boeing.  Some forward-looking surveys are indicating contraction for the sector, while other data suggest a bottom is forming and better times lie ahead.  The services side of the economy remains in expansion mode.

 

  • Tension in the Middle East. Geo-political tension has flared in the Middle East once again.  Responding to the attack on its Baghdad embassy, the US retaliated by killing a top Iranian general with a drone strike.  Iran hit back with an ineffective missile strike at an Iraqi base housing US military personnel.  At present, the US and Iran have ceased their attacks, though it remains a possibility that Iran will pursue additional action against US and/or Allied targets, likely in terroristic fashion or via cyber means.

 

  • Outlook for 2020. Our market view remains cautiously optimistic that the current expansion can continue.  The backdrop of low interest rates, combined with accommodative central bank policy, should provide a degree of support to risk assets.  Sentiment, despite the bullish move over the past few months, is not overly lofty.  However, much will depend on how the continuing trade negotiations with China play out.  Despite Phase One being nearly complete, the situation remains fluid.  Outside of trade, we are maintaining a close eye on how the services sector, which makes up the bulk of the US economy, reacts to the softening in manufacturing industry.  The upcoming election season could lend to some volatility to markets, though we expect the impact to be relatively short-term.

 

 

Christopher Lai

Senior Portfolio Manager

01/10/2020

Share:

Previous

2019 Wrap-Up

Next

Market Currents 2/14/20

Related Posts

Market Currents – 7/1/19
July 1, 2019
Market Currents – 7/1/19
No Comments
Our Boeing Thoughts
April 23, 2019
Our Boeing Thoughts
No Comments
Market Currents- 07/30/2015
July 30, 2015
Market Currents- 07/30/2015
No Comments

Leave a Comment Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Archives

  • January 2021
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • July 2017
  • May 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • April 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • November 2015
  • September 2015
  • July 2015
  • January 2015
  • November 2014
  • September 2014
  • May 2014
  • October 2013
  • June 2013
  • November 2012
  • May 2012
  • March 2012

Recent Posts

  • David versus Goliath
  • Market Currents – 1/25/21
  • Giving Thanks and Feeling Hope

Contact Us

  • Address
    NEW HARTFORD: 89 Genesee Street | New Hartford, NY 13413 | 315.624.7300

    ELMIRA: 1225 W. Water Street, Suite 1 | Elmira, NY 14905 | 607.734.2002

    SARATOGA: 16 Lake Avenue | Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 | 518.306.4220
  • Home
  • Investing
  • Planning
  • 401(k)
  • Team
  • Contact Us
  • Terms of use

Recent Posts

  • David versus Goliath January 29, 2021
  • Market Currents – 1/25/21 January 25, 2021
  • Giving Thanks and Feeling Hope November 25, 2020
  • Market Currents- 11/13/2020 November 13, 2020

Login To Your Fidelity Account

Copyright © 2021 Ascent Wealth Partners. All Rights Reserved.